Colección especial COVID-19
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Esta colección especial recoge todo tipo de materales relacionados con la COVID-19 o de los coronavirus en general como aportación al mejor y más extenso conocimiento de estas enfermedades, como artículos o informes de investigación o materiales más divulgativo en las que ha participado la UPV.
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Browsing Colección especial COVID-19 by Subject "03.- Garantizar una vida saludable y promover el bienestar para todos y todas en todas las edades"
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- PublicationComunicación y noticias falsas en relación al COVID-19: algunas reflexiones sobre la información, la desinformación y propuestas de mejora(Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 2020) Ramón Fernández, Francisca; Dpto. de Urbanismo; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Agronómica y del Medio Natural; Agencia Estatal de Investigación[EN] The fake news generated during the health crisis of COVID-19 has provided a challenge for information in the health field. The objective of this work is to reflect on the information and disinformation circulating on COVID-19, on the fake news and the consequences for the citizens, and tho indicate the current scenario of the fake news and the measures that are adopted. It is verified that the proliferation of fake news and the mechanisms to prevent its dissemination do not have specific regulations, and the behavior of the population is driven by the consumption of untruthful information. The application of artificial intelligence is suggested, through algorithms, and good practice protocols to prevent the dissemination of health fake news, and also the adoption of specific regulation on measures to fight against fake news.
- PublicationEl coronavirus, el testamento en situación de epidemia y el uso de las TICS en el derecho español(Universidad Externado de Colombia, 2021-01) Ramón Fernández, Francisca; Dpto. de Urbanismo; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Agronómica y del Medio Natural; Agencia Estatal de Investigación[EN] The declaration of the state of alarm in Spain for the coronavirus epidemic has activated the possibility of making a will in the event of an epidemic regulated in the Spanish Civil Code. We propose to analyze this type of will, as well as the application of new information and communication technologies taking into account the situation of the subject and the circumstances in which it may be found, and the legal problems that may arise.
- PublicationCOVID-19 Healthcare Planning: Predicting Mortality and the Role of the Herd Immunity Barrier in the General Population(MDPI AG, 2020-07) Marco-Franco, Julio Emilio; Guadalajara Olmeda, María Natividad; González de Julián, Silvia; Vivas Consuelo, David José Juan; Facultad de Administración y Dirección de Empresas; Dpto. de Economía y Ciencias Sociales; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería del Diseño; Centro de Investigación de Ingeniería Económica[EN] Using a mathematical model for COVID-19 incorporating data on excess of mortality compared to the corresponding period of the previous year obtained from the daily monitoring of mortality in Spain (MoMo), the prediction of total number of casualties in Spain for the first outbreak has been computed. From this figure, and following a stepwise meta-analysis of available reports, the case fatality rate (CFR) and the infectious case fatality rate (IFR) for the outbreak have been estimated. As the impact of age on these rates is notable, it is proposed to include an age-related adjusted fatality ratio in future comparative analyses between studies, calculated by adjusting the results by risk ratio to a reference age band (e.g., 60-69). From the casualty figures, and the corresponding CFR and IFR ratios, the forecast of serologically positive cases in the general Spanish population has been estimated at approximately 1% (0.87-1.3%) of the samples. If the data are confirmed by the ongoing study of the Carlos III Institute, until a vaccine is found, the immunity acquired in the general population after the infectious outbreak is far from the 65-70% herd immunity required as a barrier for COVID-19.
- PublicationCOVID-19, Fake News, and Vaccines: Should Regulation Be Implemented?(MDPI AG, 2021-01) Marco-Franco, Julio Emilio; PIta-Barros, Pedro; Vivas-Orts, David; González de Julián, Silvia; Vivas Consuelo, David José Juan; Facultad de Administración y Dirección de Empresas; Dpto. de Economía y Ciencias Sociales; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería del Diseño; Centro de Investigación de Ingeniería Económica[EN] We analysed issues concerning the establishment of compulsory vaccination against COVID-19, as well as the role of misinformation as a disincentive-especially when published by health professionals-and citizen acceptance of measures in this regard. Data from different surveys revealed a high degree of hesitation rather than outright opposition to vaccines. The most frequent complaint related to the COVID-19 vaccination was the fear of side effects. Within the Spanish and European legislative framework, both compulsory vaccination and government regulation of FN (Fake News) appear to be feasible options, counting on sufficient legal support, which could be reinforced by additional amendment. However, following current trends of good governance, policymakers must have public legitimation. Rather than compulsory COVID-19 vaccination, an approach based on education and truthful information, persuading the population of the benefits of a vaccine on a voluntary basis, is recommended. Disagreements between health professionals are positive, but they should be resolved following good practice and the procedures of the code of ethics. Furthermore, citizens do not support the involvement of government authorities in the direct control of news. Collaboration with the media and other organizations should be used instead.
- PublicationEl derecho a la vida y a la protección de la salud en las medidas adoptadas en España como consecuencia de la covid-19: Una reflexión sobre su oportunidad(Universidad de Talca. Centro de Estudios Constitucionales, 2020) Ramón Fernández, Francisca; Dpto. de Urbanismo; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Agronómica y del Medio Natural; Agencia Estatal de Investigación[EN] This paper analyzes the measures adopted in Spain as a result of the state of alarm by COVID-19 and the right to life and health protection with a reflection on their timeliness. It starts from the regulation established in the regulatory body, as well as the most recent doctrine position to analyze the restrictions that have been established to certain rights and the measures that have been adopted to limit the activities of normal life, in order to protect the health of people in the situation of health crisis. The study will attend, especially, to various situations such as the case of vulnerable groups, and citizens, in order to determine the relationship between health protection and the right to life, as well as whether this has constituted or not a suspension of your constitutional rights.
- PublicationEffect of the early use of antivirals on the COVID-19 pandemic. A computational network modeling approach(Elsevier, 2020-11) Benlloch Baviera, Jose María; Cortés López, Juan Carlos; Martínez-Rodríguez, David; San Julián Garcés, Raúl; Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto; Facultad de Administración y Dirección de Empresas; Dpto. de Matemática Aplicada; Dpto. de Comunicaciones; Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar; Instituto de Instrumentación para Imagen Molecular; Generalitat Valenciana; European Research Council; Agencia Estatal de Investigación[EN] It seems that we are far from controlling COVID-19 pandemics, and, consequently, returning to a fully normal life. Until an effective vaccine is found, safety measures as the use of face masks, social distancing, washing hands regularly, etc., have to be taken. Also, the use of appropriate antivirals in order to alleviate the symptoms, to control the severity of the illness and to prevent the transmission, could be a good option that we study in this work. In this paper, we propose a computational random network model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Spain. Once the model has been calibrated and validated, we use it to simulate several scenarios where effective antivirals are available. The results show how the early use of antivirals may significantly reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and may avoid a new collapse of the health system. (c) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- PublicationKaplan-Meier Type Survival Curves for COVID-19: A Health Data Based Decision-Making Tool(Frontiers Media S.A., 2021-10-25) Calabuig Rodriguez, Jose Manuel; García Raffi, Luis Miguel; García-Valiente, A.; Sánchez Pérez, Enrique Alfonso; Dpto. de Matemática Aplicada; Instituto Universitario de Matemática Pura y Aplicada; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Caminos, Canales y Puertos; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Industrial; Cátedra de Transparencia y Gestión de datos, Universitat Politècnica de València[EN] Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. All of them are publishing the number of new individuals infected, recovered and dead individuals, along with some supplementary material. These data are often recorded in a non-uniform manner and do not conform the standard definitions of these variables. In this paper we show that, using data from the first wave of the epidemic (February-June), Kaplan-Meier curves calculated with them could provide useful information on the dynamics of the disease in different countries. We developed our scheme based on the cumulative total number of infected, recovered and dead individuals provided by the countries. We present a robust and simple model to show certain characteristics of the evolution of the dynamic process, showing that the differences in evolution between countries are reflected in the corresponding Kaplan-Meier-type curves. We compare the curves obtained for the most affected countries at that time, with the corresponding interpretation of the properties that distinguish them. The model is revealed as a practical tool for countries in the management of the Healthcare System.
- PublicationModeling Hospital Resource Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Experimental Validation(MDPI AG, 2021-12) Calabuig Rodriguez, Jose Manuel; Jiménez-Fernández, E.; Sánchez Pérez, Enrique Alfonso; Manzanares, S.; Dpto. de Matemática Aplicada; Instituto Universitario de Matemática Pura y Aplicada; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Caminos, Canales y Puertos; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Industrial[EN] One of the main challenges posed by the healthcare crisis generated by COVID-19 is to avoid hospital collapse. The occupation of hospital beds by patients diagnosed by COVID-19 implies the diversion or suspension of their use for other specialities. Therefore, it is useful to have information that allows efficient management of future hospital occupancy. This article presents a robust and simple model to show certain characteristics of the evolution of the dynamic process of bed occupancy by patients with COVID-19 in a hospital by means of an adaptation of Kaplan-Meier survival curves. To check this model, the evolution of the COVID-19 hospitalization process of two hospitals between 11 March and 15 June 2020 is analyzed. The information provided by the Kaplan-Meier curves allows forecasts of hospital occupancy in subsequent periods. The results shows an average deviation of 2.45 patients between predictions and actual occupancy in the period analyzed.
- PublicationPotential limitations in COVID-19 machine learning due to data source variability: A case study in the nCov2019 dataset(Oxford University Press, 2021-02) Sáez Silvestre, Carlos; Romero, Nekane; Conejero Casares, José Alberto; García Gómez, Juan Miguel; Dpto. de Física Aplicada; Instituto Universitario de Tecnologías de la Información y Comunicaciones; Dpto. de Matemática Aplicada; Instituto Universitario de Matemática Pura y Aplicada; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Industrial; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Informática; BANCO SANTANDER, S.A.; Universitat Politècnica de València[EN] Objective: The lack of representative coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) data is a bottleneck for reliable and generalizable machine learning. Data sharing is insufficient without data quality, in which source variability plays an important role. We showcase and discuss potential biases from data source variability for COVID-19 machine learning. Materials and Methods: We used the publicly available nCov2019 dataset, including patient-level data from several countries. We aimed to the discovery and classification of severity subgroups using symptoms and comorbidities. Results: Cases from the 2 countries with the highest prevalence were divided into separate subgroups with distinct severity manifestations. This variability can reduce the representativeness of training data with respect the model target populations and increase model complexity at risk of overfitting. Conclusions: Data source variability is a potential contributor to bias in distributed research networks. We call for systematic assessment and reporting of data source variability and data quality in COVID-19 data sharing, as key information for reliable and generalizable machine learning.
- PublicationSimplified Mathematical Modeling of Uncertainty: Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Spain(MDPI AG, 2021-03) Marco-Franco, Julio Emilio; Pita-Barros, Pedro; González de Julián, Silvia; Sabat, Iryna; Vivas Consuelo, David José Juan; Facultad de Administración y Dirección de Empresas; Dpto. de Economía y Ciencias Sociales; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería del Diseño; Centro de Investigación de Ingeniería Económica[EN] When exceptional situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic arise and reliable data is not available at decision-making times, estimation using mathematical models can provide a reasonable reckoning for health planning. We present a simplified model (static but with two-time references) for estimating the cost-effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccine. A simplified model provides quick assessment of the upper bound of cost-effectiveness, as we illustrated with data from Spain, and allows for easy comparisons between countries. It may also provide useful comparisons among different vaccines at the marketplace, from the perspective of the buyer. From analysis of this information, key epidemiological figures, and costs of the disease for Spain have been estimated, based on mortality. The fatality value is a robust data that can alternatively be obtained from death registers, funeral homes, cemeteries, and crematoria. Our model estimates the cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) to be 5,132 € (4,926 ¿ 5,276) as of 17 February 2021, based on the following assumptions/inputs: an estimated cost of 30 euros per dose (plus transport, storing, and administration), two doses per person, efficacy of 70% and coverage of 70% of the population. Even considering the possibility of some bias, this simplified model provides confirmation that vaccination against COVID-19 is highly cost-effective.
- PublicationStatistical analysis of the long-term influence of covid-19 on waste generation - a case study of Castellón in Spain(MDPI AG, 2022-05) Artacho Ramírez, Miguel Ángel; Moreno-Solaz, Héctor; Lo Iacono Ferreira, Vanesa Gladys; Cloquell Ballester, Victor Andres; Dpto. de Proyectos de Ingeniería; Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería del Diseño; Escuela Politécnica Superior de Alcoy; C.Inv.Dirección Proyectos,Innov.yS.PRINS[EN] Existing research recognizes the COVID-19 impact on waste generation. However, the preliminary studies were made at an early pandemic stage, focused on the household waste fraction, and employed descriptive statistics that lacked statistical support. This study tries to fill this gap by providing a reliable statistical analysis setting inferential confidence in the waste generation differences found in Castellón. Repeated measures ANOVA were carried out for all the waste fractions collected and recorded in the city landfill database from 2017 to 2020. Additionally, Bonferroni¿s multiple comparison test (p < 0.05) was used to assure confidence level correction and identify which pairs of years¿ differences appeared. The longitudinal study identified trends for each waste fraction before the pandemic and showed how they changed with the advent of the crisis. Compared to 2019, waste collection in 2020 significantly grew for glass and packaging; remained unchanged for beaches, paper and cardboard, and dropped substantially for households, streets, markets, bulky waste, hospitals, and recycling centres. Total waste showed no differences between 2017 and 2019 but dropped significantly in 2020. These findings may help us better understand the long-term implications of COVID-19 and improve municipal solid waste management in a similar crisis.